The 2024 presidential election of Donald Trump as president-elect has spurred considerable speculation on how his administration's policies may reshape the U.S. housing market. Insights from industry experts, economists, and real estate professionals shed light on the market’s potential direction in the coming years. Here's what they have to say:
Mixed Signals for Real Estate: What Experts Anticipate
Deregulation Focus and Potential Impact on Construction Costs
A hallmark of Trump's policy outlook is his focus on deregulation, which aims to reduce bureaucratic hurdles in housing development. Experts predict that this could help streamline new construction projects, potentially reducing costs for developers and boosting supply over time. Marco Santarelli, a real estate analyst, notes that Trump's emphasis on privatizing government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) could lead to faster project approvals but may also reduce certain consumer protections.
Interest Rates and Market Liquidity
Changes to interest rates often accompany new administrations. Ryan Serhant, a prominent real estate broker, believes that while immediate shifts may be limited, buyers and sellers are watching rate movements closely. He suggests that mortgage rates' stabilization could rejuvenate market activity, potentially leading to a "roaring" market rebound by 2025, provided rates drop to around 4% to 5%. However, this optimism is tempered by caution from other analysts who worry that persistently high prices and buyer affordability concerns could hinder significant growth.
Housing Affordability and Inventory Constraints
The housing market's ongoing challenges revolve around affordability and limited inventory. According to industry projections, home prices may continue to rise, driven in part by regulatory cost factors that have kept new supply from meeting demand. This has been particularly pronounced since 2020, with many builders citing high fees and compliance costs as deterrents to affordable housing construction. Danielle Hale, Realtor.com's chief economist, warns that long-term affordability constraints could lead to buyers spending a disproportionate share of their income on housing, which would stifle broader economic spending.
"Real estate agents will continue to find opportunities in this market, and prospective buyers may find waiting costly as the upward pressure on prices persists."
The Real Problem: Housing Supply and Demand
No matter the policy shifts or market trends, the housing market's most profound force remains the imbalance between supply and demand. Historical data from the Federal Reserve reveals a steady population increase, with the U.S. growing from approximately 180 million people in the mid-20th century to over 330 million today.
Yet, housing construction has struggled to keep pace, and regulatory costs further exacerbate this challenge, making affordable development difficult for builders.
Predictions from the Mortgage Bankers Association indicate that while home price appreciation may dip to 1.6%-3% going into 2025-2027, it remains positive. This steady appreciation underscores a persistent demand amidst constrained supply. Real estate agents will continue to find opportunities in this market, and prospective buyers may find waiting costly as the upward pressure on prices persists.
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Sources: News Week | Norada Investments 1 | Norada Investments 2
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